In April, investors continued to wrestle with uncertainty, but generally took a wait-and-see approach.

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April Market Commentary

In April, investors continued to wrestle with uncertainty, but generally took a wait-and-see approach. The uncertainty was, and continues to be, precipitated by multiple unresolved questions: Is the economy headed for recession? Economic activity slowed sharply in the first quarter, but underlying details were encouraging. Should a recession occur, how bad will it be? After raising rates yet again on May 3, what will the Fed do next? Current Fed projections show the central bank holding rates steady through the end of the year. Market expectations show the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% at each of its last three meetings of the year. Who is right? Will the US default on its debts? The Treasury has warned of such an outcome if the debt ceiling is not raised by June 1. Can/will Congress act in time? Will reverberations from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in mid-March continue to emanate, or has the banking turmoil been contained following JP Morgan’s acquisition First Republic Bank?

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